Marko Kovačević

My paper will theoretically explore the implications of the war in Ukraine after Russia’s military invasion of 2022 for the viability of small - state strategies in the Western Balkans. It seeks to conceptualize the relevant small states’ responses to the multiple and intersecting crises of security, economy, and society that spread in Europe. To that aim, I will build upon the Marginality Constellations framework to explain the co - effects of competing for geopolitical presences and role expectations in a small state region still not integrated into the EU under a protracted perspective of membership. The war between Russia and Ukraine is conceptualized as a context - determining and structuring external shock that I argue, is most likely to shift and shape the roles and preferences of “would - be insider” small states in Europe from neutrality and hedging to alliance - shelter seeking. My paper shows that underlying marginality constellation (MC) can enable and constrain small - state strategy depending on its character. Although MC may shape favorably the initial policy responses of small states, as the war goes on, the role expectations now seem more demanding for those states that prefer divergent hedging strategies instead of alliance shelter - seeking, such as Serbia. Finally, the paper engages with the extant small state ʻdilemmas’ and concepts such as autonomy, integration, neutrality, alliances, and polarity.